When researchers with the National Bureau of Economic Research set out to quantify tariff impacts on alcohol products, they came across COLA Cloud to get straight into the analysis.
Their interest was in the 2019 U.S. tariffs on European wines, which created a natural experiment. The 25% duty applied only to still wines with alcohol content of 14% ABV or below; wines above that threshold were exempt. Would producers reformulate products to avoid the tariff?
Findings
The TTB's public COLA data showed clear evidence of what the researchers termed "tariff engineering." The share of European wine COLAs above 14% ABV increased by roughly 40 percentage points after the tariffs took effect. Approximately one quarter of this increase came from wines that had previously been approved at 14% ABV or below—likely the same products, just labeled with higher alcohol content.
The distribution of ABV values showed pronounced bunching just above the threshold, with wines clustering at 14.1% and 14.5%—values that were uncommon before the policy change.
Case example
Domaine Rene Malleron Sancerre, a Loire Valley wine, illustrates the pattern. Its COLA approval history shows:
- July 2019 (pre-tariff): 12.5-13% ABV (TTB #19165001000182)
- April 2020 (during tariff): 14.5% ABV (TTB #20090001000822)
- February 2022 (post-tariff): 12.5% ABV (TTB #22026001000906)
The labeled ABV increased by two percentage points during the tariff period, then reverted after tariffs were suspended. Each transition is documented in the federal approval record.
Hard Research, Easy Data
With COLA Cloud's cleaned and enriched scrape of the TTB's COLA Registry, the researcher may have run queries as simple as the one below.
-- Share of European wine COLAs above 14% ABV by month
select
date_trunc('month', approval_date) as month,
count(case when ocr_abv > 14 then 1 end) as wines_above_14,
count(*) as total_wines,
round(100.0 * count(case when ocr_abv > 14 then 1 end) / count(*), 1) as percent_wines_above_14
from colas
where product_type = 'wine'
and origin_name in ('france')
and ocr_abv is not null
and approval_date between '2018-01-01' and '2022-12-31'
group by 1
order by 1;Full paper
The research extends beyond label reformulation to trace tariff pass-through across importers, wholesalers, and retailers using scanner data and customs records. The COLA analysis is one component of a broader study on how trade policy affects supply chains.
Read the working paper on NBER.org
For research inquiries regarding COLA data access, contact us.